‘I think you’re going to see some very good horses make a lot of money’ – buyers prepare to tackle Arqana Breeze-Up market

Consensus is not always easily reached on the sales ground. However, those in Deauville on Friday were unanimous in the view that the catalogue Arqana has assembled for Saturday’s Breeze-Up Sale, which begins at 11am local time (10am BST), was as strong a group of horses as witnessed at any two-year-old sale in Europe. 

The sire index alone serves notice that highly credentialled youngsters are set to come under the hammer, with the likes of Dubawi, Frankel, Havana Grey, Lope De Vega, New Bay, Sea The Stars, Siyouni and Wootton Bassett all well represented. There is also a strong American theme running through the catalogue, with leading US names including Blame, Gun Runner, Justify, Not This Time and Uncle Mo. 

Agents were busy working through the barns on a baking hot day of showing on Friday, along with members of the buying teams from rival powerhouses Coolmore and Godolphin. A diverse cross-section of British, Irish and French trainers were also in attendance, such as Joseph O’Brien, Francis Graffard and newly minted 1,000 Guineas-winning handler Roger Varian. 

“It’s one of the premier breeze-up sales of the season and there’s always nice horses coming out here,” said Varian. “We picked up some nice horses at this sale last year. You find a slightly longer-term project here, horses with a bit more scope. I’m sure it will be a strong sale but we’ll try to bring one or two home.” 

Roger Varian: Classic-winning trainer was in attendance at ArqanaCredit: Edward Whitaker

The trainer also shared his reflections on Elmalka’s Classic triumph last Sunday, a success that was underpinned by a pedigree the trainer knows well, having also prepared the filly’s dam, Nahrain, to win top-level contests on both sides of the Atlantic. 

“The yard still has a good glow around it at the moment, but horses get you focused straight away again on Monday morning and this is a busy week with plenty going on,” he said. 

“It’s special though as we trained the mother and quite a few of the family. We’ve also been associated with [owner] Sheikh Ahmed, through Michael Jarvis, going back nearly 25 years. It’s very special because the Classics are so hard to win.” 

Few buyers have as firm a grasp on the breeze-up market as Richard Brown, with the Blandford Bloodstock man among the busiest and most successful buyers of two-year-olds annually.

The agent, whose Arqana purchases include Classic winner Teppal, said it was not merely the sire profile that made this such an attractive catalogue but the combination of factors such as pedigree, physique and pre-sale breeze all aligning on so many individual lots. 

“It’s probably as good a group as we’ve seen assembled in one place,” said Brown. “I think the breezes matched up, the sires matched up. I’d be very surprised if there aren’t some very good horses among the group.” 

Viewings were taking place ahead of the Arqana May Breeze-Up Sale Credit: Zuzanna Lupa

Brown said the proliferation of promising prospects meant compiling a shortlist of targets was still proving a challenge deep into the selection process. 

“The breeze-up guys are unbelievable judges and they’ve bought some proper horses here,” he said. “I’ve been here since Tuesday, it’s now 3pm on Friday and I’m still going through them trying to sort my list, which is still massive. It’s very hard trying to narrow it down.” 

As well as physical inspections and pedigree research, buyers’ decisions are based on myriad datapoints gleaned from the pre-sale workouts, most typically around sectional times, as well as stride length and frequency. 

Brown has been among those crunching the numbers, and said: “It’s always good when the data matches up the horses you like the look of. This is why I like to look at them all before they breeze, firstly because you get an immediate sense of whether it’s a good sale or not. Our initial thought, having seen everything, was that this is an exceptional group of horses. Then, generally speaking, the better-looking, better-bred horses have breezed the best, and that gives you real confidence.” 

He added: “It should be a very good sale. The big problem this year is that the top has been very strong but it’s quickly fallen off below that. This is a deeper group of horses than we’ve seen anywhere, so I’d imagine that will mean the market here should go much deeper too.”

A horse breezes at Deauville racecourseCredit: Zuzanna Lupa

Brown's sentiments were echoed by all of those approached for comment by the Racing Post, including fellow agent Alex Elliott, who was quick to heap praise on the sales company and the consignors for compiling the blue-chip catalogue. 

“I think Arqana have worked hard down the years to attract the overall highest quality, and I think that has shone through this year,” said Elliott. “It’s a very deep catalogue. The vendors have put a lot of money on the line to buy nice horses; they know what it takes now and what buyers want. 

"I think Arqana needs to be applauded and I think the vendors need to be applauded for the product they’ve put on.” 

Asked about his expectations for Saturday’s session of selling, Elliott said: “I think you’re going to see some very good horses make a lot of money. Some of the horses in the second tier here would be in the top tier at other sales, so I think you’ll see spending trickle down from the top more than we have at other sales. It’s been very polarised at the breeze-ups this year, but I think you can make a case for a lot of horses here. 

“My final list to show a good client is as long as it’s been all year, so I’m looking forward to seeing what happens. There are a few Justifys I think will make a lot of money because they’ve got everything; pedigree, sire power, physical and the breeze.” 

Elliott also gave the additional inspection day on Friday a firm thumbs up, adding: “It’s fantastic, and much needed for sure. You have to give these horses and the people who have brought them here time, otherwise it’s all too rushed.” 

Crowds gathered for the Arqana breeze this weekCredit: Zuzanna Lupa

Arqana’s executive director Freddy Powell met the positive reception to the offering with guarded optimism, saying: “The closer you get to the sale, the less you get to know, but the vibe has been good and the breeze went very well yesterday. 

"Buyers and vendors were happy – every vendor, which is very rare! The atmosphere is good, so hopefully that translates into a good sale.” 

Powell echoed Brown and Elliott’s praise for the job the consignors have done of identifying so many high-end prospects, as well as preparing the youngsters under their care with precision and skill. 

“The breeze-up vendors are terrific yearling buyers,” he said. “I think people should take advantage of the fact that the first selection has been made by some of the best horsemen and women on the planet. 

“We’re lucky because we’ve built confidence with vendors over the years, listening to what they have to say and changing things when needed. It’s the right place, the right time, the right ground. All those aspects tick a lot of boxes for buyers and for vendors to come to Deauville this weekend. It works.” 

Arqana has catalogued 207 lots in this year’s sale, up from 195 12 months ago. 

Asked how hard it had been to cap numbers at that level, Powell said: “Very. We could have catalogued another 50 or 60 horses no problem. But first we have to respect the people looking after the track, they have done a wonderful job and there's only a certain number of horses that can gallop on the course.

Freddie Powell: "It was a matter of getting the right balance between satisfying vendors and respecting the market and the logistics"Credit: Patrick McCann

“You also need to keep the market tight as you cannot open the floodgates and think you can sell everything. It was a matter of getting the right balance between satisfying vendors and respecting the market and the logistics.” 

Expanded numbers at other sales appears to have been a contributing factor to the weakness of the middle market witnessed this year. Powell said he hoped the attraction of the lucrative French premiums would help mitigate some of the issues felt at that level, but said the trend remains a concern for the wider industry moving forward. 

“Analysing the other results, you can see there is a middle market missing,” he said. “The top level is still quite sound and healthy, and I think that will probably be the same here. We’re quite lucky in France because the horses with French premiums are important for owners and trainers, and they can help shore up the middle market. It’s a concern for everyone though if that trend of polarisation keeps going.

“We all know the breeze-up vendors are very strong supporters of every yearling sale everywhere, they’re very important for the whole industry so we want them to have a good sale everywhere.”

Read more

‘It’s make or break’ – pinhookers look to buck the market trend as breeze-up season rolls into Deauville 

'Winning with her gave me the same kick as a Group 1' - all aboard for season two of the Arqana Series