'He's got a great draw and is in top form' - quotes and analysis on Friday's Chester opener

Once you go beyond sprint trips at Chester, the draw bias lessens and stays in much the same place. So in races over this distance, the bias is about as strong as it has historically been in the Chester Cup.

That still means the bias exists. A horse drawn low over this course and distance is around 30 per cent more likely to win than the average. This is no doubt part of the reason that Liamarty Dreams (stall two of 13) and Dancing Magic (stall three) have gravitated towards the top of the market.

Racing style is also in favour of Liamarty Dreams. He has raced prominently or led for his wins on his last two starts, including when he made all at Musselburgh. The seven-furlong course there has an almost Chester-like bias towards front-runners.

More so than Musselburgh, the bias here becomes somewhat self-fulfilling. That is to say there are plenty of others whose jockeys would be keen to take them along should they ping the lids. Liamarty Dreams is merely the best drawn, and the most in form.

Liamarty Dreams: early market leader for the opening handicap on Chester Cup dayCredit: John Grossick (racingpost.com/photos)

It would be a little too hopeful to expect a pace collapse with all these front-runners. It could encourage those who think their selection can find a good position and hold it. 

There is low-key temptation to look at Fools Rush In, who will make his second start for Ruth Carr. His first was admittedly a pretty deplorable effort, which heavy ground, a six-month break and Ripon could only go part of the way to excusing.

Fast ground at Chester, breaking from stall four, offers none of those excuses. His record here is excellent, with three wins from nine runs and three of the six best performances of his life on Racing Post Ratings. He is a free-goer too, so the prospect of plenty of early pace is likely to be in his favour.
Analysis by Keith Melrose

What they say

Charlie Johnston, trainer of Finn's Charm
It's his seasonal reappearance. He started well last year and then lost his way, but he's had an MOT over the winter and seems in good order. I think coming back to seven and a half furlongs is ideal and his draw is just okay. We'll need things to go right from out there.

Daniel Kubler, joint-trainer of Percy's Lad
The draw is less than ideal. He was third in the race from the same draw last year but the quicker ground this year would be a plus as he goes on most but is arguably slightly better on a quicker surface. He ran a cracker at Newmarket on his reappearance, so he's in good form.

Richard Spencer, trainer of Revich
Hopefully going back to Chester revitalises him a little. He's been below par on his two runs this season, so he has to find his form and we can't be confident off the back of that. He's 3lb higher than when he won it last year, but he's on the same mark he won off at Ayr at the end of last year, so he can run well if he finds his form.

Roger Teal, trainer of Dancing Magic
He ran a solid race at Newbury last time and hopefully he'll come forward for that. He's got a decent draw and I'm hoping he can run a big race.

Karl Burke, trainer of Liamarty Dreams
He's got a great draw and is in top form. He's sneaking up in the weights after two cracking runs and he's a winner round the track. I'm expecting a big run and we'll have to see whether he can complete a hat-trick.

Ian Williams, trainer of Trip To Rome
Things haven't really gone his way recently. He's drawn well for this race, so we'll make use of that, and I think he's fairly handicapped. I think he's got a better opportunity than an outsider anyway.

Hugo Palmer, trainer of Victoria Falls
She's just squeezed in the bottom and she's in really good order. She did nothing but improve last year. She has a nice draw and should love the quick ground.

Mick Appleby, trainer of Island Native
He's in good order and we don't have too bad a draw. If he handles the track he should go well.
Reporting by Stuart Riley

Friday's previews:

2.35 Chester: 'He likes it round here' - key quotes and analysis for competitive Chester handicap 

3.05 Chester: Can Passenger take another step forward or will proven Group 2 performer Israr make his class count? 

3.40 Chester: 'We made a conscious decision to wait for this and plenty of horses have run well from his draw' - key Chester Cup quotes 

Graeme Rodway: Why a high draw for longtime Chester Cup favourite may be no hindrance with the help of Hayley Turner 

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