Who will win the 2023 Coral Gold Cup at Newbury based on previous trends?

Mahler Mission: finished second at Navan

Mahler Mission: fancied to land another valuable British prize for John McConnellCredit: Patrick McCann

Young guns rule

This race regularly goes the way of a second-season chaser on the upgrade and one who showed a high level of form in their first campaign.

Fourteen of the last 16 winners had triumphed in Class 1 or 2 races, and the exceptions were Cloth Cap and Cloudy Glen, who respectively had finished third in a Scottish National and second in a handicap at the Cheltenham Festival.

This historic feature demands lofty standards of jumping, yet a lack of chasing experience is rarely a drawback. Twelve of the last 18 winners had run in fewer than ten chases, with Trabolgan, State Of Play, Diamond Harry and Bobs Worth having no more than four.

With second-season chasers traditionally dominant, the previous campaign’s novice programme bears the closest scrutiny. The Brown Advisory at Cheltenham has produced eight of the last 19 winners, yet the form of any novice contest at the festival commands close attention.

It follows that the ideal age band is between six and eight, with only Teeton Mill, Denman and Sizing Tennessee outside of this bracket since Cogent won in 1993. Sizing Tennessee became the first aged in double figures to land the contest since Diamond Edge in 1981, since when 93 were beaten.

Weight factor waning

In 2004, Celestial Gold became the 17th winner in 20 years to carry less than 11st, but the tide has turned and now big weights are no longer feared. Eleven of the last 19 winners were above this threshold, with last year’s winner Le Milos bang on it.

Official ratings are a good guide. Cloth Cap and Cloudy Glen – two of the last three winners – were rated lower than 145, yet since 2004, no less than 112 runners rated below that mark have been beaten.

What bodes well for the 169-rated topweight Ahoy Senor is that horses with a BHA rating of 160-plus boast two wins and four places from only 19 runners since Denman’s victory in 2009.

Prep run preferred

This is a big ask for Dusart and Sail Away on their seasonal returns. This can be won first time out, but when nine of the last ten winners had the benefit of a pipe-opener, it is not the perfect preparation.

Furthermore, two of the last three exceptions went on to capture the Gold Cup. And when eight of the nine winners to have had a run finished in the top three, a positive performance is essential. The exception was De Rasher Counter, who ran over hurdles.

This statistic rules out a number of entries, notably Ahoy Senor, Monbeg Genius and Stumptown.

Verdict

A cast-iron trends race in which the call is always a second-season chaser with a touch of class, and Mahler Mission fits the bill.

Lacking handicap experience is not ideal, nor is a strike-rate over fences of just one from six, but he kept strong company during his first season as a chaser and held every chance when falling in the National Hunt Chase, in which past winners Celestial Gold, Native River and Sizing Tennessee were placed. Remastered was also fifth in that race and may well have won this in 2021 but for falling four from home.

Easily next best is Complete Unknown, who was second to Gerri Colombe in a Grade 1 novice chase at Aintree’s National meeting. Twig, a course winner, also makes the shortlist.