Who will win the 2023 December Gold Cup at Cheltenham based on previous trends?

Thunder Rock showed he has a future over fences

Thunder Rock: favourite for the December Gold CupCredit: John Grossick

Prestbury pointers

Course form is key, as is so often the case in high-profile races at Cheltenham.

The most relevant piece of form is the previous month's Paddy Power Gold Cup, which is staged over a similar distance and attracts the same calibre of horse. It is only natural that these races would have strong ties.

Connections of Stage Star have down their homework in declining the opportunity to achieve a double last achieved by Exotic Dancer in 2006, despite plenty having been up for the challenge. Runner-up Notlongtillmay is also absent, but there's good reason to believe Il Ridoto (third) and Fugitif (fourth) can run well, while Easy As That was eyecatching back in sixth.

Since 2006, eight horses beaten in November have won in December. Their Paddy Power form figures were 2520923F, so while a positive performance bodes well, it is by no means a prerequisite.

Experience of Cheltenham is essential and this rules out Jay Jay Reilly. Three years ago, Chatham Street Lad became the first winner making its debut at the track since Kings Fountain in 1991.

Il Ridoto (pink) ran well behind stablemate Stage Star, who narrowly avoided coming down at the last

Stage Star won last month's Paddy Power Gold Cup, with Il Ridoto (pink), Fugitif (far right) and Easy As That (far left) engaged in the December Gold Cup this weekendCredit: Edward Whitaker

Younger the better

This is a race for young horses – indeed, two of the last ten winners were aged four.

There have been only three winners aged in double digits since the race was launched in 1963 and the 2021 winner, Coole Cody, became the first older than eight since Fragrant Dawn in 1993. Runners aged nine or above are 1-38 in the last 13 runnings.

Inexperience is therefore not to be frowned upon and 14 of the last 19 winners had run fewer than ten times over fences in Britain and Ireland. Only two during this period had run 15 times or more and, significantly, eight of the 13 winners had won no more than one handicap.

Every winner since Sir Oj in 2005 had won over at least 2m4f, even the successful four-year-olds.

Weight a killer

Big weights spell danger and always have. Only two of the last ten winners had more than 11st and its a sobering statistic for the 162-rated top-weight Fakir D'Oudairies that Frodon in 2018 was the first winner since Pendil in 1974 to defy more than 11st 10lb.

Indeed, a mark north of 150 is treacherous when only Poquelin and Frodon have been higher since Senor El Betrutti in 1997. The 151-rated Fugitif also bites the dust.

Verdict

This is a cast-iron trends race, and it is little wonder that the Paddy Power Gold Cup is the best guide.

Il Ridoto fared best of the entries last month when finishing third and he should confirm placings the fourth Fugitif, who may have too much weight with 11st 3lb.

However, not all winners to have come out of that race were at the sharp end and there could be a big run in sixth-placed Easy As That.

A bad mid-race mistake had him on the back foot and yet he stayed on encouragingly in the closing stages. There's good reason to believe he will be more honed at the weekend.